Are we already in a recession?
For my job I have to pay close attention to economic trends and what the experts are saying about those trends. For the past year I have watched as those “experts” repeated over and over again that the economy is only “softening” and that we are not entering a recession. The stagnant home sales? Just a handful of pocket corrections. Now, with the year coming to a close, they are all changing their story and saying “okay…maybe we will be going into a small recession next year.” Is it just me or does it feel like maybe we are already at the start of a recession? Just look at all of the news clips about the dollar, the mortgage crisis, fuel costs, plummeting Christmas sales – it all seems to be adding up to the “r” word.
For example, this article about new home construction. We are at our lowest level of home construction activity in 16 years. What is so important about 16 years ago in 1991? We were in the midst of a recession!
That same article says:
In a bad sign for future activity, the government reported that applications for building permits fell for a sixth straight month, dropping by 1.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.15 million units, the slowest pace for building permits since June 1993.
Again, 1993 we were still in the recession. All of the economic trends are pointing the same direction as they were in the first three years of the 90s. Can we just admit it?
[...] Glad the economists are finally catching up (or at least no longer in denial). May I direct you to my entry from December 18, 2007 titled Are We Already In A Recession)? [...]
Bloomberg: “The U.S. economy may be already in a recession” « What Comets, Stars, and Moons are all about said this on January 4, 2008 at 4:55 pm
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Merrill Lynch: Recession in the US ‘has arrived’ « What Comets, Stars, and Moons are all about said this on January 8, 2008 at 9:31 am